BAIN Luxury_Goods_Study_10thEdition.pdf

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Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study,
2011
10th Edition, October 2011
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
2010-2011: two phenomenal years for personal luxury
goods despite global events
Worldwide Personal Luxury Goods Market trend (1995-2011E, €B)
Japan
earthquake
Sept 11
SARS $/€
Subprime & Socio-Economic
financial crisis Turbulence
10%
13%
2
2011: yet another peak in personal luxury goods
Worldwide Personal Luxury Goods Market Trend (2009-2011E, €B)
2009: CRISIS
•
Economic downturn
•
Lowest consumer confidence ever
•
Strong consumption reduction in
mature markets, only China growing
+10 %
+13 %
2010: REBOUND
•
First signs of economic healing
•
Strong rebound in consumer
confidence of luxury consumers
•
Channel & wardrobe restocking
•
Chinese customers driving growth
2011: NEW DEAL
•
New growth phase for local
consumption in mature markets
•
China, again, surging
•
Japan earthquake effect milder than
expected
3
No slow down expected for the 2011 holiday season
Worst scenario
Worldwide Personal
Luxury Goods 2011
Scenarios €B
173
189
Base scenario
Best scenario
+11%
+10%
+9%
2010
2011E
Main
assumption
•
Holiday season in
line vs. 2010
(+3% vs last year)
•
Holiday season
growing vs. 2010
(+7% vs last year)
•
Holiday season over-
performing
(+10%
vs last year)
Assumed
Probability
10%
70%
20%
4
In real terms, the market is growing consistently at a
double-digit rate
Worldwide Personal Luxury Goods Market trend @ current and
constant exchange rates (2009-2011E, €B)
23
191
11
153
9
173
-6
@ current
exchange rate
@ constant
exchange rate
+13%
+10%
+8%
+13%
2009
€/$
€/Y
1.4
130.0
Constant Currency
effect
growth
5% US dollar appreciation
12% Yen appreciation
2010
1.3
116.1
Constant Currency
growth
effect
-5% US dollar depreciation
3% Yen appreciation
2011E
1.4
112.7
5

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